With more than 100,000 sites across fifty-four countries, Europe has the world’s most extensive network of conservation areas. In addition to protected areas, which are designated by individual countries, the European Union (EU) established the Natura 2000 network to ensure the long-term survival of its most valuable biodiversity. In the 27 countries that constitute the EU, the Natura 2000 contributes 27,661 sites covering 117 million hectares (17% of the EU surface). How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change?

A new study published in Ecology Letters provides a comprehensive assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on terrestrial vertebrates and plants in European protected areas and Natura 2000 network areas. “We found that by 2080, 58%±2.6 of the species could lose suitable climate in protected areas. At the same time, losses could affect 63%±2.1 of European Union’s Bird and Habitat Directive species occurring in Natura 2000 areas”, says Miguel Araújo, the lead author of the study, the visiting ‘Rui Nabeiro’ Chair on Biodiversity at the Centro de Estudos em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO) at the University of Évora and senior researcher of the Spanish Research Council (CSIC).

“We knew from previous observational and modelling studies that climate change would affect a significant number of plants and animals. What we did not know was the extent to which conservation policy instruments would effectively protect biodiversity against the effects of climate change”, says Wilfried Thuiller, a co-author of the study and researcher of the French Research Council (CNRS) at the University Josef Fournier in Grenoble.

To address this problem the authors modelled the impacts of climate change on species distributions across Europe and measured expected impacts in protected areas, Natura 2000 network sites, and across unprotected areas. “We found that when exposed to climate change protected areas conserve species better than unprotected areas, but key European species –those listed by European conservation Directives– are more vulnerable to climate change in Natura 2000 areas than across unprotected landscapes”, explains Miguel Araújo. The reason why nationally designated protected areas are more effective against climate change is “because they tend to occur in mountains, which act as climate refugia. Species in the Natura 2000 network are more vulnerable because more flatlands are included in the network and proportional range losses due climate impacts are greater there”, says Araújo.

The study finds that severe impacts are expected across most of Europe, especially in the south. However, impacts in Scandinavia and in high mountains such as the Alps, the Pyrenees, and the Carpathians are predicted to be less severe. “If we focus on the Bird and Habitat Directive species in Natura 2000 network areas, for example, then Finland and Sweden will have more species gaining habitat than losing with climate change”, explains Miguel Araújo. The problem is that species losing habitats in these regions are those with restricted ranges and occur only there in Europe. “Species that are widespread across Europe will gain with warming of the climate, but cold tolerant species occurring in the far north and in mountains with high altitudes will face serious challenges in the future”, says Miguel Araújo.

The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe’s biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change

Averting climate-change induced risks on European biodiversity requires a paradigm shift in conservation policy, explains Miguel Araújo: “Conventional views take the view that successful conservation is achieved by isolating protected areas from the processes that threaten their existence. However, conservation strategies, in order to be effective, need to mitigate impacts of climate change in addition to providing sustainable management of habitats and ecosystems”.

To operate s shift in protected areas conservation and management, Araújo proposes that:

1. Protected-areas management plans include specific actions for adaptation of biodiversity to climate change. Such actions should be conceived for periods up to 20 to 50 years, depending on the speed with which ecosystem changes are expected.

2. Mechanisms for reclassification of existing protected areas and classification of new ones need to be revisited to take into account changes in species distributions.

3. Integrated management of the countryside is necessary to alleviate the overall pressure on biodiversity and facilitate movement of species between conservation areas.

4. Whenever possible, win-win-win strategies should be achieved, where the goals of climate change mitigation, adaptation of society, and biodiversity conservation are simultaneously met.

Citations:

Araújo, M.B., Alagador, D., Cabeza, M., Nogués Bravo, D. & Thuiller, W. (2011). Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecology Letters. DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01610.x

Full study is available in:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01610.x/full